Centro de Intercambio y Solidaridad

Election Observer Mission Bulletin no. 2 - The Battle of the Polls

 December 31, 2008

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“There is a garbage culture out there, where we pour garbage on people. Then the pollsters run around and take a poll and say, do you smell anything?” - Bob Woodward, United States Journalist

The battle of the polls in the 2009 elections in El Salvador has been joined throughout the campaign, which began quite early, as the FMLN settled on Mauricio Funes as their presidential candidate in September of 2007.  There are many polling firms that have been employed in the service of trying to figure out what will happen in the El Salvador elections of January, 18, 2009 for legislative assembly and municipal seats,  and March 15, 2009, for the presidential contest.  Here is a review of some of the results over the last months.

2008 CID-Gallup Poll Results – Presidential Race

(http://www.cidgallup.com/Ingles/Index.aspx)

Results for November, 2008, various polling sources - Presidential Race

(http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/funes_leads/ )

(http://luterano.blogspot.com/search/label/2009%20Elections)

Polling is an integral part of the modern political campaign.  Polls are conducted to determine the relative status of the candidates at any given time, and, furthermore,  to influence the electorate.  If a campaign can show a consistent strength in the polls, or a strengthening trend, it can attract voters to its message, claim a lead, portray itself as a winner.  It has been pointed out to me, by a close observer of El Salvador, that the polling firms used by the major media newspapers El Diario de Hoy and La Prensa Grafica, namely Borge & Asociados, Consulta Mitofsky, and LPG Datos have a vested interest in protecting the right wing candidate.  It should be noted that these firms also show a much narrower difference between Funes and Avila than other polling groups such as IUDOP, or CID/Gallup, and polls from other universities respected for their high academic standards and objectivity.

While there is a wide range in the polling results, the one constant this year has been the lead of Mauricio Funes and the FMLN,  The size of the lead varies by poll and pollster, differences that could be the result of differences in sample polled, or method of sample, or bias.

The January 18 parliamentary and local elections will also be a poll.  They will be a crucial indicator to what will happen in the March 15 presidential election.  The January elections will show where each party has electoral strength, where resources would be most productively spent.  When the rightwing parties split the elections to two dates, which will cost the Salvadoran government over $10 million, they got themselves a free, nationwide poll that will prove critical to their planning for the March campaign.  The electoral advantage the FMLN has always maintained in the municipalities will be separated from the Presidential race, and ARENA will have a clear picture of where to put their resources.

The polls show us that Funes should  win, that he and the FMLN are electorally stronger than Ävila and ARENA.  However, with the intervening municipal elections, and the long gap till the March presidential election, anything can happen.  As well, electoral “reforms” established in 2007 that include removing the necessity for a valid ballot to be stamped and signed, point to a real possibility of attempts at fraud.  The dirty campaign can continue till March.  The importance of a neutral, objective and vigilant international election observation effort is clear: El Salvador deserves a chance to change, and a clear-eyed, effective observation effort can facilitate that opportunity.